Likely Future Scenarios For Greece And The EU After #Grexit

| June 30, 2015 | 0 Comments

Varoufakis and Tsipras

What is most likely to happen in the next week is a default of Greece. That means the country will be officially bankrupt. This is the news that makes all main headlines lately. But despite that Greece has been a main discussion topic over the last years very few people seem to understand what is going on and what are the real stakes.
Like with almost all main discussion topics people are fed with crap that suites one side or the other without even touching the surface of the real game that’s going on.

In order for you to understand what happens with Greece (or any other issue) you must have basic knowledge about the world, the financial systems, the whole geopolitical scene, the ideological doctrines, local and historical issues. That’s because they all play a role here. And to explain all of them will take a lot of writing which no one will read.
This is the reason why simple propaganda works so well, very few are educated enough to know better.

Nothing is the Greek crisis in particular is black or white. It’s a complex thing. It’s not whether they want to be in the Euro zone or not. It’s not whether they are pro-EU or not.

The whole Greece situation started long ago as a relatively small scale (in global economic terms) criminal deal. This so called “small local” problem is actually as of major importance to a lot of big players now, especially for the EU.

There is a lot on stake now. So what can happen?

There are few very likely future scenarios for Greece and the European Union.
(Even though some of the scenarios are speculative, they are based on objective factors so don’t get shocked)

1. Greek people vote YES and accept the proposal from the Troika. Greece stays in the euro zone and imposes the planned austerity measures. Greece essentially ratifies the German/EU/IMF enslavement by having to pay off debt that can not be paid in the next 100 years no matter of the budget cuts
Who benefits? – Germany and the IMF
Likelihood of happening –  small, probably less than 10% since the Greek government opposes it and the Greek people hate the Troika and the idea of austerity

2. Greeks vote NO and the country defaults. (After all that’s what the referendum is about, it has to legitimate in front of the Greek people the decision that was essentially made by the Tsipras cabinet so they get credit of trust and time for reforms in the upcoming tougher times.) The Greek economy will shrink immediately, some economists say over 30%, there will be liquidity problem (no money) and they will probably have to exit the euro zone and go back to use a drachma which can lead to big inflation.
Who benefits? – not the EU and Germany
Likelihood of happening – very likely

As you see, the Greek people are going to be the real victims in both cases so why would the prime minister Tsipras and the financial minister Varoufakis choose the default option?

1. Their own political future and the future of SYRIZA is on the line. They got elected because they oppose the Troika and the austerity. If they agree to the proposed “generous” terms, the Greeks can kick them out.
2. They probably care about their country’s sovereignty and they might dislike austerity for real
3. They most likely have a strong backup

They want to be in the EU, they want to be in the euro zone, but they also want sovereignty, economic freedom and justice.
These are not empty words (like in many other cases).

Sovereignty for them means that they (the Greeks) don’t want to be owned by their European partners, they don’t want to pay them a tax so they can be allowed to live.
You can argue that will exist anyway but living is about perception, not reality.

Economic freedom means that they will produce whatever they want to produce. The EU has strict economic model where some countries are basically not allowed to produce goods and compete. During the last 20-30 years the Greeks were stimulated by the EU to not work, they were encouraged and financed to be “lazy”.

They were also encouraged to sign on to big debts (most of which never actually came to Greece). They had a lot of corrupt governments that helped the big international financial institutions at the expense of the Greek people. That’s why they want justice.

Now the EU and Germany in particular have another problem. They don’t care about the Greek people, they care about the euro and they want to save the euro.
When Greece was accepted in the euro zone the country was helped by big international banks and accounting firms to cook its books (make their economy look good on paper) so that they could meet the requirements for membership.

The Greek debt to GDP is about 175% (it can’t be paid off) and at the same time for the sake of the euro and the German economy Greece has to stay in the euro zone. So why wouldn’t they (The Troika – ECB, EU Commission and IMF) just write it off or reduce it significantly?

1. The banksters want their money and they run the show ultimately
2. The other problematic countries will follow (Spain, Italy, Portugal)

It’s a dead end problem for the EU.
Collapse of the euro will mean collapse of Germany and the European banking system. And the  way they can stop it is to keep looting Greece inside the euro zone.

Now the geopolitics play a role here.

The United States didn’t mind the SYRIZA government coming to power. Why?
Because that’s a way to create a problem for Germany and make sure that they are not going to play free.
However, it’s a double edged sword because the natural new allies of Greece will be Russia and China who need more strategic influence in the EU and will be happy to buy it in Greece.

Russia plays the situation very diplomatic so far because what they ultimately want is a strong cooperation with Germany. But because the German political class is under the control of the US, they can’t count on that.
Russia will not bail out Greece but they can offer them close economic ties in exchange of geopolitical partnership.

It’s not a coincidence that Alexis Tsipras attended the Economic forum in St. Petersburg instead of going to Brussels. He might have gotten his plan B there.

China needs an easy gate to the European markets so their capital for Greece is probably already set aside. According to many sources the port of Piraeus will be given to China.

Greece was invited by Russia to join the new BRICS bank, they already agreed on a gas pipeline projects and some people speculate that there can be a Russian military base in Greece. Have in mind Greece is a NATO member.

The Greek government will try to trade this position and get a much better deal from the EU. We will see what will happen.

The future is uncertain. The problem is complex. Last minute deals are possible.

Related Post

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Category: ANALYSES

Share Your 2 Cents: