The media has been throwing many nuclear bitter bananas at us about the situation on the Korean peninsula. Despite the disturbing news, the information remains scarce. Nevertheless, we can make out what is happening following simple logic.
South Korea does not need a military conflict
South Korea has the support of USA. The situation has been frozen since the 1950s – although from time to time things seem to get serious, North Korea and South Korea remain enemies that evidently do not want to fight but have to maintain a level of fighting capacity. South Korea lives its own life exporting high-tech goods to the whole world and a war means that making great profits will be seriously impeded.
North Korea in the nuclear club
We have to understand why North Korea needs nuclear weapons. First of all, the conventional weapons in the army of North Korea are of the technical level that was modern 20 years ago. That is why PDRK cannot win a war against South Korea supported by the States even theoretically. Nuclear weapons do not guarantee a victory, but mutual assured destruction, so that both sides will avoid military conflicts. What is more, obtaining nuclear warheads, North Korea will decrease its annual state expenditures on weapons that are undoubtedly very high, some experts estimate that they take half the budget of the country. What is more, if you have ballistic rockets, you do not need them to be very accurate if they carry nuclear warheads.
To draw a conclusion, a new Korean war most probably will not happen soon. Having nuclear technology is a step forward for the isolated economy of PDRK, but it will hardly lead to improvements in the life of its population. We can be sure that a new war on this peninsula is not acceptable for China, Russia and USA.